Week in Review

• As expected, the Fed made no change in the fed funds rate
• Core CPI inflation rose at a very low 0.8% annual rate
• November Capacity Utilization climbed to the highest level since October 2008
• The ECB adopted a new program to aid countries with debt troubles

Week in Review

• Consumer Sentiment rose to the highest level since June
• The four-week average of Jobless Claims declined to the lowest level in two years
• Fed Chief Bernanke expressed strong support for the quantitative easing program
• Oil prices rose to $90 per barrel, the highest level in two years

Short Week in Review

• Weekly Jobless Claims dropped to the lowest level since July 2008
• The core PCE inflation index rose at a low 0.9% annual rate
• The Fed lowered its forecast for economic growth for 2011
• Conforming loan limits will remain unchanged from 2010 levels through the third quarter of 2011

HAPPY THANKSGIVING

Week in Review

• The Jobless Claims four-week average declined to the lowest level since Sept. 2008
• Bernanke testified that the $600B quantitative easing could create 700K jobs over two years
• The Treasury will auction $99 billion in 2-yr, 5-yr, and 7-yr securities next week
• Oil prices dropped 6% from the high for the year reached last week

It was another volatile session. CPI inflation came in lower than expected. Housing Starts also came in below the consensus, mostly due to a decline in multi-family units. Fed Chief Bernanke testified that the latest $600 billion quantitative easing program could create 700,000 jobs over two years. The Dow was down 15 points.

Anticipation of the Fed's quantitative easing program pushed mortgage rates down to the lowest levels in decades, but they have moved significantly higher since the announcement. The size of the program was close to expectations. With yields so low, though, investors have been questioning what could push them lower in the future.

There has been substantial opposition to the quantitative easing program from other countries and from many US politicians and economists, meaning that the Fed will face strong resistance to an expansion of the program. Unless the economy falters, it may be difficult for mortgage rates to hold near recent lows.

Week in Review

-The Fed's Bullard suggested that Fed actions typically impact the economy in 6 to 12 months
-Weekly Jobless Claims fell to the lowest level since July
-Oil prices reached $88 per barrel, a two-year high
-The Fed will purchase $105 billion of Treasury securities over the next month

This morning, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 435K, below the consensus forecast of 450K. The four-week average declined to 447K. October Import Prices ex-oil rose 0.3%, the same as last month.

The September Trade Deficit came in a little lower than expected. The Dow is down 50 points. No more economic data will be released today. The results from the 30-yr Treasury auction will come out at noon and may have a significant impact on mortgage rates.

Week in Review

• As expected, the Fed made no change in the fed funds rate
• September core PCE inflation rose at a low 1.2% annual rate
• September Pending Home Sales fell 2% from August
• The Treasury will auction $72 billion in 3-yr, 10-yr, and 30-yr securities next week

Stronger than expected Employment data pushed rates higher this morning. Against a consensus forecast for a gain of 60K jobs, the economy added 151K jobs in October. Private employers hired 159K workers, the highest level since April. As expected, the Unemployment Rate remained at 9.6%. Average hourly earning, a proxy for wage growth, rose 0.2% from September.

Following the expected outcome in the election results, with the Republicans taking control of the House and gaining seats in the Senate, MBS markets have rallied. This morning, the ADP estimate for Friday's employment report was for an increase of 43K private sector jobs, which was a little higher than expected.
The FOMC meeting announcement will be released around 1:15 . No change in rates is expected, but the Fed is likely to announce the details of its new monetary stimulus program (quantitative easing). Investors are split in their forecasts, so the news may produce a large movement in rates.

The big story today is the election. As the results become clearer during the session and into the evening, they will influence MBS markets. Republicans are expected to gain ground. The Dow is up 100 points. No economic data will be released today. The FOMC meeting announcement will be released tomorrow around 1:15.

Rates jumped up today. MBS prices reacted to today's economic data in the expected direction on both the upside and the downside. Weaker than expected Personal Income data lifted MBS markets early. When ISM Manufacturing came in higher than the consensus forecast, however, MBS markets moved lower for the rest of the session.

Tomorrow, no economic data will be released. Early election results may influence MBS prices during the session. The important FOMC meeting announcement will come out on Wednesday. The next couple of days may continue to be highly volatile.

Week in review

• Third quarter GDP increased a little to a 2.0% annual rate
• Weekly Jobless Claims declined to the lowest level in three months
• September Durable Orders posted the biggest increase since January
• The G20 nations will try to maintain trade balances at "sustainable" levels

The Commerce Department reported earlier this morning that sales of new homes rose in September by 6.6% to an annual rate of 307,000 as compared to the prior month. Even with this month's gain, the pace of sales is barely above its 47-year low. Slow job growth, tight credit, and low consumer confidence remain the primary impediments to improvement in the housing sector.

Mortgage rates are up .25% for the week.

Rates are up

September Existing Home Sales rose 10% from August to an annual rate of 4.53 million, above the consensus forecast of 4.25 million. Inventories of unsold existing homes fell 2% to a 10.7-month supply. First-time buyers purchased 32% of homes. Distressed homes accounted for 35% of sales. The September data was encouraging, but investors are concerned that recent issues with foreclosures will lead to a decline in the October figures.

Week in review

• Sept. Capacity Utilization posted the first monthly decline since June 2009
• The Fed's Beige Book revealed modest economic growth in most regions
• China unexpectedly raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years
• The Treasury will auction $99 billion in 2-yr, 5-yr, and 7-yr securities next week

This morning, weekly Jobless Claims fell to 452K, close to the consensus forecast of 455K. The four-week average declined to 458K. The Dow is up 50 points. Rates will tick up today on this news.

After booming for more than a year, the manufacturing sector of the economy is starting to show signs of cooling off from its red-hot growth pace. Industrial production fell 0.2% in September - marking its biggest decline since June 2009. This should help keep rates down.

A speech by Fed Chief Bernanke and a big release of economic data has produced a volatile morning so far. Bernanke's speech contained few surprises, but it confirmed the expectation that the Fed will provide additional monetary stimulus soon by purchasing Treasury securities. The Fed's purpose is to boost the economy and to bring the inflation level up to the Fed's preferred rate. According to Bernanke, "There would appear - all else being equal - to be a case for further action." Investors hoping for more information about the size of the purchase program were disappointed, as Bernanke stated that it is still being discussed by Fed officials.

Today's economic date came in close to expectations and had little impact on rates. The results from the 30yr Treasury auctions could move the market.

Rates are up today due to a rally in the stock market - Dow is up 50. Import prices excluding oil rose 0.3%.

Weakness in the stock market has helped mortgage rates this morning. The DOW is down 50 points. The FOMC minutes from the September's meeting along with the results of today's 3 yr Treasury auction results could change the direction of rates.

Jobs Report Misses

Rates are lower today after the release of weaker than expected Employment data. Against a consensus forecast for as loss of 5k jobs, the economy lost 95k jobs in September.

This morning, weekly Jobless Claims dropped to 445K, below the consensus forecast of 455K, and the lowest level since July 10. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, fell to 456K. The Dow is up 10 points. No more economic data will be released today.

This morning, the ADP private payrolls firm's estimate for Friday's Employment data forecasted a loss of 39K private sector jobs in September, below the consensus for an increase of 20K, and the first decline since January. The Dow is down 10 points. No economic data will be released today.

Overnight, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) unexpectedly cut interest rates nearly to zero and announced a new $418 billion monetary easing program to boost the economy. The BOJ also launched a $60 billion fund to purchase Japanese fixed income assets. Global bonds rallied after the news. This news has caused mortgage rates to creep up from yesterday.

August Pending Home Sales rose 4.3% from July, which was stronger than expected, but they were down 20% from one year ago. Pending Home Sales are a leading indicator for the housing market. August Factory Orders declined 0.5%, matching the consensus forecast. The Dow is down 80 points. Fed Chief Bernanke will be speaking tonight.

It has been a quiet morning so far. August Personal Income increased 0.5%, above the consensus forecast of 0.3%. The Core PCE price index rose 0.1% from July, matching expectations, and was a tame 1.4% higher than one year ago. The Fed's Dudley stated that further Fed action to stimulate the economy is "likely to be warranted" unless the economy improves quickly.

Mortgage rates are up today after the release of today's stronger than expected economic data. The Chicago PMI national manufacturing index rose to 60.4, above the consensus forecast of 56.0. Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 453K, below the consensus of 460K. Second quarter GDP was revised slightly higher than expected to 1.7%.

No economic data was released today. A series of Fed officials shared different viewpoints on the possibility of additional Fed purchases of Treasuries. Fed officials appear to be divided about both the need and the effectiveness of buying bonds to stimulate the economy. A flexible program to purchase smaller quantities might be an appealing middle ground. Demand was stronger than average for the 7-yr Treasury auction.

The July Case-Shiller price index increased 0.6% from June, and was 3.2% higher than one year ago. The Wall Street Journal reported that Fed officials are considering a different approach if they decide to purchase more bonds to stimulate the economy. Unlike the recent massive MBS purchase program, the Fed's new plan might include smaller-scale purchases of Treasury securities with an open-ended time frame. This approach would give the Fed more flexibility to make adjustments. It would also make Fed actions harder to predict, which might add volatility to MBS markets. Consumer Confidence came in weaker than expected.

MBS prices are up +12/32 and at the high for the day. No economic data was released today. Demand was stronger than average for the 2-yr Treasury auction, which lifted MBS markets. The bid-to-cover was 3.78 and foreign investors purchased 39% of the total. The Dow is down 50 points. Tomorrow, Consumer Confidence will be released at 9:00 am. The results of the 5-yr auction will be released at noon.

Stronger than expected economic growth data has pushed rates higher this morning. August Durable Orders declined -1.3% from July, which was close to the consensus forecast. Excluding the volatile transportation component, however, durable orders rose 2.0%, which was more than expected. The Dow is up 150 points.

Weaker than expected US jobs data and fresh concerns about high debt levels in smaller European countries have helped MBS markets this morning. Weekly Jobless Claims rose to 465K, above the consensus forecast of 450K. The four-week average fell to 463K. The Dow is down 75 points.

The July FHFA home price index showed a decline of 0.5% from June, and the June figures were revised lower. The index was 3.3% lower than one year ago. The Dow is down 20 points. Tomorrow, Existing Home Sales, Jobless Claims, and Leading Indicators will be released.

Today's Fed announcement lifted MBS markets and long-term Treasury markets. As expected, the Fed made no change in the fed funds rate. Fed officials stated that they are "prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery." Investors interpreted this to mean that additional bond purchases by the Fed could take place in coming months, and the possibility of increased demand boosted MBS markets.

This morning, August Housing Starts rose 11% to an annual rate of 598K units, above the consensus forecast of 550K, and the highest level since April. Building Permits, a leading indicator, rose 2%, also beating expectations. The Dow is down 10 points. The Fed announcement will come out around 1:15. No change in the fed funds rate is expected. Recent comments have indicated that the Fed will take further stimulative action only if the economy deteriorates significantly, and the economy has been relatively stable since the last meeting. As a result, investors are mostly expecting little change in today's Fed statement.

It has been a quiet morning ahead of tomorrow's Fed meeting. The Dow is up 10 points. No economic data will be released today.

Next week

The biggest story next week will be Tuesday's Fed meeting. No change in the fed funds rate is expected, but any surprises in the Fed's statement could have a large impact on mortgage rates. Also on Tuesday, Housing Starts will be released. Existing Home Sales will come out on Thursday, along with Leading Indicators. Durable Orders, an important indicator of economic activity, and New Home Sales will be released on Friday.

This week's inflation data again shows that rising inflation is not a concern right now. Investors will be watching to see whether the Fed addresses the risk of deflation at Tuesday's FOMC meeting. The Dow is up 25 points.

Creeping Up

Rates are a little higher today on stronger than expected jobs data. Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 450K, below the consensus forecast of 460K, and the lowest level in two months. August PPI inflation increased 0.4% from July, which was slightly more than expected. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, matched the consensus, rising at a low 1.3% annual rate. The Dow is down 50 points.

Rates will be steady from yesterday on today's economic data. August Industrial Production rose 0.2%, which was close to expectations. The Empire State regional manufacturing index fell short of expectations with a decline to 4.1. August Import Prices ex-oil rose 0.3% from July. The Dow is down 25 points. No more economic data will be released today.

Retail Sales posted their largest increase since March, beating expectations, but MBS markets moved higher, as investors shifted assets to relatively safer assets such as bonds and gold. The Dow is down 20 points. Tomorrow, Import Prices, Empire State, and Industrial Production will be released.

With little news, both MBS markets and stocks are posting gains this morning. The Dow is up 75 points. No economic data will be released today.

Week in Review

• Weekly Jobless Claims fell to the lowest level since the week ending July 10
• The July Trade Balance was -$42.8 billion, from -$49.9 billion in June
• The Beige Book reported that the economy is still growing, but with "widespread signs of deceleration"
• The Fed's Fisher expressed reluctance to ease monetary policy until fiscal policy becomes clearer

Another Up Tick

Following weak 30-yr auction results yesterday, MBS markets continued to move lower this morning and rates creeped up again. The Dow is up 25 points. No economic data will be released today.

Up Tick

Initial Jobless Claims came in much lower than the market consensus estimates and beat last week's data by 27K. This is just one week after the Unemployment Data was a little better than expectations and it pushing mortgage rates higher as investors feel that they have a reason to get out of the low to almost no yields of bonds and are getting back into stocks.

The Fed's Beige Book reported that the economy is still growing, but that there are "widespread signs of deceleration." Demand was stronger than average for the 10-yr auction. The bid-to-cover was 3.21, and foreign investors purchases 54% of the total. The Dow is up 50 points. Tomorrow, Jobless Claims and the Trade Balance will be released at 8:30 et. The results of the 30-yr auction will be released at 1:00 et.

Rates have inched higher

Helping Stocks and hurting Bonds and mortgage rates this morning was a better-than-expected Jobless Claims number along with comments from the Wall Street Journal that "fears of a double dip recession are exaggerated."

Late Wednesday night the Senate followed the lead of the House of Representatives and voted to extend the closing deadline for the popular homebuyer tax credit that was scheduled to expire yesterday at midnight. Once President Obama signs the Homebuyer Assistance and Improvement Act of 2010, which he is expected to do next week, homebuyers will have until September 30 to close on their home purchase and still qualify for the tax credit (as long as they signed their sales contract by April 30, 2010).

The Conference Board, a non-profit global business organization, reported this morning that its consumer confidence index gave up its last two months of gain in June, dropping to a reading of 52.9 from 62.7. This along with the continued turmoil over seas are keeping rates down.

As the end of the 2nd quarter approaches...rates are at a 70 year low. Now is the time to lock.


http://www.mmgweekly.com/w/w.html?SID=7b852316cf9d2d41bec07321928afe96

Fannie Mae Crack Down

Walk away from a Fannie loan and you can pay? Sorry, no Fannie loan for the next seven years. If someone is smart enough and has the gumption to walk from a Fannie loan, one would think they are smart enough to find financing elsewhere. Wasn’t too long ago where people were hung for stealing another’s horse. My how times have changed.

New Home Sales Plunge 32.7% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 300,000 the lowest since 1963 when the reporting began. New home sales is a small part of the overall housing market, accounting for just 8% of homes sold in April. The 32.7% decrease was also a record. The sharp drop followed two big increases that reflected buyers rushing to market before the tax credit expired. The decline exceeded what had been dire expectations, and is likely to raise fears about housing and keep mortgage rates a historic lows.

Time to Lock In

This morning, Existing Home Sales were reported considerably lower than expectations; however, the inventory of unsold existing homes slightly improved from the prior month's reading. Rates are at the lowest level of the year!!! Today is a great day to lock!

The big news over the weekend is that China has announced that they intend to allow for a more flexible Yuan and not peg it to the dollar. This will boost the U.S. stock markets and put some pressure on mortgage rates.

No economic reports today, so rates will take their cues from the stock market. Higher stock prices will tend to drag mortgage interest rates a little higher while falling stock prices will likely support steady to perhaps fractionally lower rates.

Looking ahead to next week -- the nation's central bankers will gather in Washington on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss monetary policy strategy for the coming six weeks. Most observers believe the members of the Federal Open Market Committee will vote to leave their short-term benchmark interest rates unchanged. There is also broad agreement among Fed watchers that Mr. Bernanke and his fellow policymakers will choose to make little, if any significant change to their views, expressed in the committee's traditional post-meeting statement, that a fragile economic recovery is currently underway. If this assessment proves accurate, look for the Fed meeting to prove to be a non-event in terms of its influence on mortgage interest rates.

Down is down over 60 points due to the weakness in Initial Claims and CPI. Also the Philly Fed's report was very weak. This will help keep rates down today!

In economic reports, the Produce Price Index indicated that inflation remains tame. Also in the news, Housing Starts and Building Permits were reported down in May. While that seems bad at first, less supply may actually help the industry in the long run.

More of the Same

In the news, the New York Empire Manufacturing Index came in nearly in line with estimates. The report had little effect on the markets and mortgage rates.

Monday Blues

The DOW is up 57 this morning. Rates are essentially flat from Friday. Here is a forecast for the week http://www.mmgweekly.com/w/w.html?SID=7b852316cf9d2d41bec07321928afe96

Congress Could Extend Home-Buyer Tax Credit Closing Deadline

Did the tax credit work too well? That’s the latest concern from the real-estate industry, which is experiencing bottlenecks at lenders and real-estate service companies that may not be able to finalize purchases in time for tens of thousands of buyers to receive a tax credit worth up to $8,000.
On Thursday, there were signs that the real-estate lobby had successfully communicated those concerns to Congress. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid joined Sen. Christopher Doddand Sen. Johnny Isakson in sponsoring a measure that would give buyers until Sept. 30 to close on sales that went into contract by April 30. That measure would be attached to a job-related bill before the Senate. It would need House and Senate passage before being signed by President Obama.

Bounce

Yesterday we saw a rate improvement at the end of the day...due to the strong demand for 10 yr note and European Union (EU) concerns. Cooler heads have prevailed and the DOW is up over 200. Rates will be up .125% today.

Good time to lock in...Eurpean Central Bank is forcasting small levels of growth and stability ahead which will take a lot of fear out of the market.

Rates have hit bottom...???!!!!

Can rates go lower...today will be the day we find out:

Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, will testify before the U.S. House Budget Committee about economic and financial conditions, and the federal budget. Anytime Mr. Bernanke speaks, his words can have a large impact on the markets. The US Treasury will auction $21 billion 10 year Treasury notes and The Fed's Beige Book is issued today...this data outlines economic conditions around the United States and is used as a point of reference during FOMC meets where our nation’s monetary policy is set.

Our only chance for lower rates hinges on a very strong demand for the 10 yr notes... and of course any new financial termoil in Europe.

Treasury will auction $36 billion 3 year Treasury notes today. This is $2 billion less than last auction of new notes which indicates our government needs to borrow less money to fund the deficit. This is a long-term positive for interest rates and the economy.

No movement

Pretty slow day today...rates are flat even though the Dow closed down 115.

Swing and a Miss

Today's Jobs report is a "swing and a miss"...and the Dow is down @150 points. Rates will be .125% lower today.